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Author's program note. Whether you like it or not, the song to learn is John Sinclair's 1903 favorite, "The Eyes of Texas Are Upon You" ... but worse, for the likes of Mitt Romney, it's not just Texas... but the whole of the US of A. that is taking a good, close look at the strapping, big haired, stentorian back slapping Texas governor, Rick Perry.
What's more, every day that goes by makes Mitt Romney less palatable, less electable, and less likable (if that's possible) than he was the day before. But let's not get into that matter quite yet; let's instead set the mood by going to any search engine and finding a rendition of Sinclair's snappy tune... then put on your favorite Texas football jersey and tune up the music. It is, after all, a thoroughly rousing number.
The House of Representatives.
This one is easy. As I write (September 13, 2011), the Grand Old Party holds 240 seats in the House; Democrats hold 193 seats. There are currently 2 vacancies.
Let's start from some facts much cited that, in the final analysis, won't matter much. Call it the "stink" factor. Poll after poll comes in with numbers like these, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. These results, from August 27-31, show 82 percent of respondents disapprove of the job Congress is doing, compared with 13 percent who approve.
Forty-six percent disapprove of the Republicans' job performance, while 32 percent approve. Congressional Democrats' disapproval rating stood at 44 percent in the poll, compared with 33 percent who approved of their job performance.
Now, let's be candid. These numbers, almost identical for both parties, are bad news for the Democrats; Americans hold their noses for both parties and that's not at all helpful for the Democrats who must be perceived as a credible alternative They aren't.
Thus, when the votes are in, Republicans will increase their already staggering majority by 3-5 seats, leaving the Democrats yearning for the cosmic tsunami they require to change things. If you don't like this prediction, consider the long-term damage Republican redistricting has wrought. That was perhaps the most significant result of the 2010 mid-term elections and cannot be undone until Democrats increase their presence in the nation's legislatures and so control the next bout of redistricting.
The Senate.
Right now, the Democrats (with the help of two New England Independents) control the Senate 53-47. But the outlook is bleak and hinges partly on whether President Obama and his race can deliver the huge number of folks to the polls who usually don't vote, but did in 2008. High turn-out is necessary or the GOP will control the Senate, too.
Here's the current situation. Fewer than a dozen Senate seats appear to be in play, and almost all are held by Democrats. Just two Republican Senators, Nevada freshman Dean Heller and Massachusetts anomaly Scott Brown are thought to be vulnerable. A Perry candidacy helps Heller. As for the photogenic, likable Brown, even Boston's longest serving (and Democratic) mayor, Thomas Menino, says Brown's a shoe-in. I agree with his honor. Democrats will make a huge effort to regain the seat that was once held by the late Edward Kennedy, but will fall short.
As for seats currently held by Democrats that the GOP expects to capture, that includes knocking off Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, Missouri's Claire McCaskill (the Senator simpleton), and Ben Nelson in Nebraska.
My prediction? When the dust settles, Democrats lose the Senate holding 48 seats plus one Independent (Bernie Sanders of Vermont), Republicans hold 51. It ain't heroic, but it's enough. The GOP presidential nomination.
There are no doubt indiscretions, peccadilloes, and embarrassing episodes in Rick Perry's personal history; we all have them. But Mitt Romney better hope they are whoppers and soon or he's toast.
When Romney was running against a field of pygmies (which he was until August 13, 2011 when Perry declared), he was the "front runner." But the very first foot step Perry took as an announced candidate kicked Romney out of that questionable position and reminded the Mitt-ster that "some of these days these boots are gonna walk all over you." That time is nigh and so Romney is running around America trying to get Tea Party-ers to like him. But it's no good. They loved motor-mouth Michele Bachmann, but in Perry they get the best of Bachmann without her craziness... and they get the distinct possibility of backing a winner. And that's not good for Mitt. Neither is the primary season.
Romney must do well in the February 6, 2012 Iowa caucuses. If Perry wins, Romney will be vulnerable. And if Perry wins in Iowa and in the February 14th New Hampshire primary, Romney is a goner... because while he may win the Wisconsin primary (February 21) he will almost surely lose the Nevada causes (on February 18) and the South Carolina and Arizona primaries (February 28th). Romney may win the Michigan primary on the same date because his father was once governor there... but Perry won't care. He can and should be the prospective nominee by then and der Mitt-ster will be sniffing around the vice presidency Perry won't offer. Mitt better get that dirt on Perry fast; he needs all he can get.
Ladies and Gentlemen: The President of the United States....
Americans always need to be reminded, we do not elect the president; we elect electors who then elect the president. Electors, unless otherwise mandated by the laws of each state, may vote for whomever they wish. Here are the electoral facts.
President Obama's poll numbers are bad, and worsening. But he is a formidable campaigner, knows how to use electronic media for maximum impact, and will raise about a BILLION dollars to keep the White House. Democrats may no longer be enchanted with their man, but they have no where to go. Here are his challenges.
Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008. Because of redistricting he would lose 6 electoral votes, and these may prove crucial to the final result. Here's what the electoral college looks like for Obama today.
Assuming Perry is the GOP nominee, Obama will sweep New England for 33 electoral votes. ANY state Perry takes here is gravy and bad news for Obama.
Obama similarly sweeps the mid-Atlantic states including the District of Columbia (3), for 79 votes, including the big prizes of New York (29) and Pennsylvania (20). About this time, Perry folks are despairing... but despair is premature.
Perry will sweep the South for 183 votes. Obama is weak throughout the region, Perry is from the region. The big imponderable is Florida, but Perry could help nail down victory by selecting freshman Senator Mel Martinez for vice president which would give him a useful leg-up with the Hispanic community. Missouri (10) could prove difficult for Perry, but incumbent Democratic senator McCaiskell could prove a drag for Obama and thus I give the palm here to Perry and with it the Solid South.
There are now three more regions to review. One goes to Obama (Pacific West), one to Perry (West) and one will determine the election (Middle West). First the Pacific West...
Obama takes California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (12), Hawaii (4). 78 votes total. Nothing looks hopeful for Perry at the moment, but if Obama's poll numbers fall, Perry should aim for Washington. Alaska's three go to Perry.
West. Strong for Perry (92). And if he selects Martinez, that would secure Colorado with its sizable Hispanic community.
And finally, the Mid West, including Ohio (18), Illinois (20), Indiana (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6). Perry takes Ohio, Nebraska and Kansas and Indiana. Perry gets 85 votes; Obama gets the rest (56 votes) but it's not enough.
Perry wins 292 electoral votes to 246 for ex-president Obama.
Of course this is all just projection but it does show how Perry can win... and Obama lose. However, November 2012 is over a year and a multitude of unplanned events away, so Perry had better not start whistling "Hail to the Chief" quite yet... and neither should Obama.
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